Quick Take - Poll-Axed

by Dr. Ellen Brandt


At this stage of the Presidential election, Polls - in fact, warring Polls - seem to be taking on exaggerated importance, used as a form of Psy-War to encourage or discourage potential voters from showing up on the Big Day.


But this time, as in the U.K.'s Brexit vote, virtually all the Polls may be off-balance and off-base - even the relatively honest ones.


That's because this is an election where the Populist vote is so central to the outcome, both nationally and in individual swing States. And guess what? Populists refuse to be polled.

That's especially true with the two major Populist constituencies which are leaning Republican - or at least anti-Democrat - this cycle.


The first group - leaning Republican - is the fully 1/2 of potential voters who are Gray voters age 50 and over.


I know Grays because - like both major candidates - I am one. And we Grays tend to be reluctant to participate in political polls. That's because:


***** We're security-conscious, and we want our privacy respected. We tend to screen our calls, and if we see you're a pollster, we'll probably treat you the same way we treat telemarketers - less than enthusiastically.


***** If we're GOP-leaning, we almost certainly detest a large part of the Mainstream Media right now, as clearly biased in favor of The Other Side. Why in the world would we agree to talk with CNN, NBC, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Gallup, or Reuters? Most of us wouldn't.


***** Many Grays find polling procedures suspect in the extreme. If we've ever taken a previous poll, we're more likely than not to have been upset by the process. Many polling employees seem to be very young and poorly informed, and they read from a script like robots. The questions asked seem geared to eliciting certain answers and certain answers only, with no wiggle room for extended or unexpected responses.


*****"Populist" and "Individualist" are compatible character traits. "Populist" and "Naive" or "Compliant" are not. If those who are the angriest and the most passionate about this year's political choices refuse to be good little poll subjects, while the Meek and the Unaware are happy to be polled, you're going to get badly skewed results, no matter how scientific you think your protocol is.


Again, this is exactly what happened in the pre-Brexit polls. Overwhelmingly, Brexit supporters were Gray citizens over age 50 - in the U.K., as here, about 1/2 of the potential electorate. And a lot of them obviously did not care to be polled. All they cared to do was vote.


There's a second group of Populists in the 2016 election, who may not be GOP-leaning, but are clearly anti-Clinton.


These are the "Bernie Sanders voters," who are of all ages and from greatly differing backgrounds. Many of them tend to be somewhat in sync with either or both of the Third Party candidates, Johnson and Stein, although some will vote for the Democrat or the Republican.


If Gray Voters over age 50 are security-conscious, privacy-conscious, wary of the Media, and just not particularly pro-polling, the Sanders Cadre - as well as other Libertarians and Greens - tend to be all of these things to the Nth degree.


Would Mr. Robot talk to a pollster? Would the Person of Interest people-of-interest? For that matter, would Rand Paul?


Of course, if this cycle's Presidential polls are as far off the mark as those gauging Brexit, the entire art or science or scientific art of political polling may have to get a major facelift.


In 2020, they may decide to use tea leaves or tree rings - or perhaps depend on Punxsutawney Phil.

 

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